MONTPELIER – Donald J. Trump is predicted to be Vermont’s first Republican presidential pick since George H. Bush in 1985, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll.
Vermont, traditionally recognized as a blue state ever since Bill Clinton ushered Bush Sr. out of the White House in the election of 1992, may turn red in November unless young and minority voters show up to the polls.
The States of the Nation project is an online survey that gathers responses from approximately 16,000 people weekly and converts the figures into simulated elections. The simulation is weighted according to “key demographics” including recent population estimates and voter turnout likelihood.
As of Monday morning, the poll shows Trump winning the state of Vermont with “high confidence” of 95 percent or more simulated votes over Hillary Clinton.
The website lists a few variables that may contribute to any Trump statewide or national success in November, including if “millennials stay home” or if there is a “surge of less-wealthy white male voters” who don’t stay home on Election Day.
According to the website, “There is no doubt, right now, that Trump has strong support among whites. He leads Clinton by 44 percent to 39 percent among all white voters. But he is supported by just 20 percent of minority voters. So to win, he would have to see his core supporters come out in large numbers while others stay home.”
Other recent polls paint a different picture, with Realclearpolitics.com showing Vermont as a “solid state” in favor of the Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine ticket.
On the national level, Clinton remains the favored presidential nominee with a 60 percent chance of winning according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll.
A poll aggregated by the New York Times places Clinton at a 73 percent chance of winning or as The Upshot puts it, “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 45-yard field goal.”